物联感知环境下电动汽车充电等待时间分布的预测方法

董红召; 方雅秀; 付凤杰

doi:10.7500/AEPS20190523010

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物联感知环境下电动汽车充电等待时间分布的预测方法

学术研究 | 更新时间：2025-06-16

- 物联感知环境下电动汽车充电等待时间分布的预测方法
- Prediction Method of Charging Waiting Time Distribution for Electric Vehicles in Internet of Things Perception Environment
- 电力系统自动化-方正平台 2020年44卷第9期页码：86-94
- 作者机构：
  
  浙江工业大学机械工程学院，浙江省杭州市 310014
- 作者简介：
  
  董红召（1969—），男，通信作者，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向：智能交通系统、智能汽车、智能制造系统。E-mail：its@zjut.edu.cn
  方雅秀（1995—），女，硕士研究生，主要研究方向：电动汽车智能充电系统。E-mail：Fang_Yaxiu@126.com
  付凤杰（1990—），女，博士，助理研究员，主要研究方向：智能交通控制、电动汽车智能充电系统。E-mail：fufengjie@zjut.edu.cn
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金资助项目(61773347);浙江省公益技术研究项目(LGF20F030001)
- DOI：10.7500/AEPS20190523010
  中图分类号：
- 收稿日期：2019-05-23，
  
  修回日期：2019-10-30，
  
  网络出版日期：2020-03-16，
  
  纸质出版日期：2020-05-10
- 稿件说明：
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董红召,方雅秀,付凤杰.物联感知环境下电动汽车充电等待时间分布的预测方法[J].电力系统自动化,2020,44(9):86-94.

DONG Hongzhao,FANG Yaxiu,FU Fengjie.Prediction Method of Charging Waiting Time Distribution for Electric Vehicles in Internet of Things Perception Environment[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2020,44(9):86-94.
董红召,方雅秀,付凤杰.物联感知环境下电动汽车充电等待时间分布的预测方法[J].电力系统自动化,2020,44(9):86-94. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20190523010.

DONG Hongzhao,FANG Yaxiu,FU Fengjie.Prediction Method of Charging Waiting Time Distribution for Electric Vehicles in Internet of Things Perception Environment[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2020,44(9):86-94. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20190523010.

摘要

已有的充电站等待时间研究往往忽略不同车辆充电需求的时变差异性，为全面描述充电等待时间的时变规律，文中提出了物联感知环境下电动汽车充电等待时间分布的预测方法。首先，确定充电站到达车辆数分布和充电时长分布，采用M/G/n排队模型模拟充电站排队等待系统，求解电动汽车充电等待时间分布函数。其次，建立用户选择充电站效用函数，利用Multi-logit模型对各个充电站内的充电需求进行预测。再者，根据充电需求预测值和网联充电站实时数据更新平均到达率、服务时间变异系数，提出电动汽车充电等待时间短时分布的预测算法。最后，以某城市某区域为例，验证了该分布的准确性，并通过路径选择分析了充电等待时间分布和可靠性对充电站的影响，为减少充电站排队拥堵和均衡电网负荷提供决策依据。

Abstract

In existing studies on waiting time of charging stations

the time-varying differences in charging requirements for different vehicles are often neglected. A prediction method of charging waiting time distribution for electric vehicles (EVs) in Internet of Things (IOT) perception environment is proposed to comprehensively explore the time-varying law of charging waiting time. Firstly

on the basis of determining the quantity distribution of vehicles arriving in the charging stations and the charging duration distribution

the M/G/n queuing model is used to simulate the queuing system in charging stations and solve the distribution function of charging waiting time for EVs. Secondly

the utility function for user to select charging stations is established and the Multi-logit model is used to predict the charging demand in each charging station. Furthermore

the average arrival rate

service time and variation coefficient are updated according to the predicted value of charging demand and the real-time data of network-connected charging stations

and the short-time prediction of EV charging waiting time is realized with the distribution function of charging waiting time. Finally

taking a certain area of a city as an example

the accuracy of this distribution is verified

and the influence of charging waiting time distribution and reliability on charging stations is analyzed

which provides a decision basis for reducing queuing congestion and balancing power system load.

关键词

Keywords

references

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