浏览全部资源
扫码关注微信
能源转型碳减排效益的货币价值化评估
Monetary Value Evaluation for Carbon Emission Reduction Benefit of Energy Transition
- 电力系统自动化 2020年44卷第1期 页码：29-34
- 作者机构：
1. 南京师范大学南瑞电气与自动化学院,江苏省南京市 210023
2. 南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司),江苏省南京市 211106
- 作者简介：
胡春璇(1995—)，女，硕士研究生，主要研究方向:碳市场与电力市场。E-mail：hcx_njnuedu@126.com
黄杰(1983—)，男，通信作者，博士，高级工程师，主要研究方向：碳排放及碳市场风险防控。E-mail：huangjie1@ sgepri.sgcc.com.cn
薛禹胜(1941—)，男，中国工程院院士，国网电力科学研究院名誉院长，博士生导师，主要研究方向：电力系统自动化。E-mail：xueyusheng@sgepri.sgcc.com.cn
- 基金信息：国家电网公司科技项目“电力转型对能源转型主动支撑——以青海省为例”;江苏省研究生培养创新工程项目(KYCX19_0804)
DOI：10.7500/AEPS20190506002
中图分类号：收稿日期：2019-05-06，
修回日期：2019-07-03，
网络出版日期：2019-08-13，
纸质出版日期：2020-01-10
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
胡春璇,黄杰,薛禹胜等.能源转型碳减排效益的货币价值化评估[J].电力系统自动化,2020,44(01):29-34.
HU Chunxuan,HUANG Jie,XUE Yusheng,et al.Monetary Value Evaluation for Carbon Emission Reduction Benefit of Energy Transition[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2020,44(01):29-34.
胡春璇,黄杰,薛禹胜等.能源转型碳减排效益的货币价值化评估[J].电力系统自动化,2020,44(01):29-34. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20190506002.
HU Chunxuan,HUANG Jie,XUE Yusheng,et al.Monetary Value Evaluation for Carbon Emission Reduction Benefit of Energy Transition[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2020,44(01):29-34. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20190506002.
摘要
气候变化已成为人类可持续发展面临的核心挑战
低碳能源转型已成为减缓气候变化的关键举措。碳减排是能源转型的关键效益之一
若能对其进行货币价值化评估
将有助于在统一货币量纲下
对不同能源转型目标和路径进行成本效益分析。分析了国际主流碳排放货币价值化评估方法
认为碳排放社会损失更适用于长期能源转型问题的评估。进而
对碳排放社会损失评估模型中社会经济、气候变化、损失评估、结果折现各子模块进行了详细介绍
并明晰了评估模型的不确定性来源。最后
选择典型评估模型对中国碳排放社会损失进行了试算
并对折现率这一关键参数进行了灵敏度分析
为能源转型方案碳减排效益货币价值化提供了评估思路。
Abstract
Climate change has become a core challenge for human sustainable development
and low-carbon energy transition has become a key measure to mitigate climate change. Carbon emission reduction is one of the key benefits of energy transition. If the carbon emission reduction benefit can be evaluated monetarily
the cost-benefit analysis of alternative energy transition goals and paths with the unified currency dimension can be realized. This paper analyzes the mainstream monetary value evaluation method of carbon emission in detail
and proposes the social cost of carbon (SCC) as a more suitable method for the long-term energy transition problems. Furthermore
the sub-modules of SCC assessment are elaborated
including social economy
climate change
damage assessment and discounting modules
and the uncertainty sources of evaluation model are discussed. Finally
a typical SCC assessment model is chosen to calculate the country level SCC (CSCC) in China
and the sensitivity analysis of the key parameter (the discount rate) is provided
which can provide an evaluation methodology of carbon emission reduction benefit for the cost benefit analysis of alternative energy transition plans.
关键词
Keywords
references
段居琦 , 徐新武 , 高清竹 . IPCC第五次评估报告关于适应气候变化与可持续发展的新认知 [J]. 气候变化研究进展 , 2014 , 10 ( 3 ): 197 - 202 .
DUAN Juqi , XU Xinwu , GAO Qingzhu . Understanding of climate change adaptation and sustainable development for IPCC fifth assessment [J]. Progress in Climate Change Research , 2014 , 10 ( 3 ): 197 - 202 .
Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) . Global warming of 1 . 5 ℃[EB/OL]. [ 2018-10-08 ]. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_version_ https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15_SPM_version_ stand_alone_LR . pdf .
黄杰 , 薛禹胜 , 蒋超 , 等 . 碳市场风险的分析与控制:(一)框架设计 [J]. 电力系统自动化 , 2018 , 42 ( 12 ): 11 - 18 . DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20180214002 http://dx.doi.org/10.7500/AEPS20180214002 .
HUANG Jie , XUE Yusheng , JIANG Chao , et al . Carbon market risk analysis and control: Part Ⅰ framework design [J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems , 2018 , 42 ( 12 ): 11 - 18 . DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20180214002 http://dx.doi.org/10.7500/AEPS20180214002 .
舒印彪 , 薛禹胜 , 蔡斌 , 等 . 关于能源转型分析的评述:(一)转型要素及研究范式 [J]. 电力系统自动化 , 2018 , 42 ( 9 ): 1 - 15 . DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20180417008 http://dx.doi.org/10.7500/AEPS20180417008 .
SHU Yinbiao , XUE Yusheng , CAI Bin , et al . A review of energy transition analysis: Part one elements and paradigms [J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems , 2018 , 42 ( 9 ): 1 - 15 . DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20180417008 http://dx.doi.org/10.7500/AEPS20180417008 .
国家发展和改革委员会 , 国家能源局 . 能源生产和消费革命战略( 2016 — 2030 [EB/OL].[ 2016-12-29 ]. http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/201704/W020170425509386101355.pdf http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/201704/W020170425509386101355.pdf .
National Development and Reform Commission , National Energy Administration . Energy production and consumer revolution strategy ( 2016 — 2030 [EB/OL]. [ 2016-12-29 ]. http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/201704/W02017042550 9386101355.pdf http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/201704/W02017042550 9386101355.pdf .
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations . Using marginal abatement cost curves to realize the economic appraisal of climate smart agriculture policy options [EB/OL]. [ 2012-03-08 ]. http://www.fao.org/3/a-bq866e.pdf http://www.fao.org/3/a-bq866e.pdf .
McKinsey & Company . Pathways to a low carbon economy : version 2 of the global greenhouse gas abatement cost curve [EB/OL]. [ 2013-09-21 ]. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/pathways-to-a-low-carbon-economy https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/pathways-to-a-low-carbon-economy .
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) . EPRI social cost of carbon webcast series-applying the social cost of carbon : technical considerations [EB/OL]. [ 2017-09-05 ]. https://eea.epri.com/pdf/integrated-assessment/SCC%20Application%20 Analysis%20-%20EPRI%20Webcast%20final.pdf https://eea.epri.com/pdf/integrated-assessment/SCC%20Application%20 Analysis%20-%20EPRI%20Webcast%20final.pdf .
Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon , United States Government . Technical support document : social cost of carbon for regulatory impact analysis-under executive order
12866 [EB/OL]. [ 2010-02-15 ]. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-12/documents/scc_tsd_2010.pdf https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-12/documents/scc_tsd_2010.pdf .
UCL Energy Institute . Marginal abatement cost curves for policy making-model-derived versus expert-based curves [EB/OL]. [ 2010-06-09 ]. http://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~ucft347/Kesicki_MACC.pdf http://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~ucft347/Kesicki_MACC.pdf .
WILLIAM N . Estimates of the social cost of carbon: concepts and results from the DICE-2013R model and alternative approaches [J]. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists , 2014 ( 1 / 2 ): 273 - 312 .
张雪芹 , 葛全胜 . 气候变化综合评估模型 [J]. 地理科学进展 , 1999 , 18 ( 1 ): 60 - 67 .
ZHANG Xueqin , GE Quansheng . Integrated assessment models on climatic changes [J]. Progress in Geography , 1999 , 18 ( 1 ): 60 - 67 .
RICKE K , DROUET L , CALDEIRA K , et al . Country-level social cost of carbon [J]. Nature Climate Change , 2018 , 8 ( 10 ): 895 - 900 .
O’NEILL B C , KRIEGLER E , RIAHI K , et al . A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways [J]. Climatic Change , 2014 , 122 ( 3 ): 387 - 400 .
The U . S. Environment Protection Agency , The U . S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science . RCPs and SSPs: what are they and where are they going [EB/OL]. [ 2013-10-02 ]. http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/data/gtsp/workshops/2013/Day2/Waldhoff_RCP_SSP_2013-10-02.pdf http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/data/gtsp/workshops/2013/Day2/Waldhoff_RCP_SSP_2013-10-02.pdf .
MOSS R H , EDMONDS J A , HIBBARD K A , et al . The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment [J]. Nature , 2010 , 463 : 747 - 756 .
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , IPCC . AR 4 synthesis report: cliamte change 2014[ EB/OL ]. [ 2014-04-12 ]. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ .
DELL M , JONES B F , OLKEN B A . Temperature shocks and economic growth: evidence from the last half century [J]. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics , 2012 , 4 ( 3 ): 66 - 95 .
BURKE M , HSIANG S M , MIGUEL E . Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production [J]. Nature , 2015 , 527 : 235 - 239 .
舒印彪 , 薛禹胜 , 蔡斌 , 等 . 关于能源转型分析的评述:(二)不确定性及其应对 [J]. 电力系统自动化 , 2018 , 42 ( 10 ): 1 - 12 . DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20180417009 http://dx.doi.org/10.7500/AEPS20180417009 .
SHU Yinbiao , XUE Yusheng , CAI Bin , et al . A review of energy transition analysis: Part two uncertainties and approaches [J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems , 2018 , 42 ( 10 ): 1 - 12 . DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20180417009 http://dx.doi.org/10.7500/AEPS20180417009 .
WALDHOFF S , ANTHOFF D , ROSE S , et al . The marginal damage costs of different greenhouse gases : an application of FUND [J/OL]. Economics [ 2014-09-01 ]. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/30613301.pdf https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/30613301.pdf .
NORDHAUS W D . Rolling the ‘DICE’: an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases [J]. Resource and Energy Economics , 1993 , 15 ( 1 ): 27 - 50 .
DIETZ S , HOPE C , PATMORE N . Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: reflections on the stern review [J]. Global Environmental Change , 2007 , 17 ( 3 / 4 ): 311 - 325 .
Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon , United States Government . Technical support document : social cost of carbon for regulatory impact analysis under executive order
12866 [EB/OL]. [ 2016-08-19 ]. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-12/documents/sc_co2_tsd_august_2016.pdf https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-12/documents/sc_co2_tsd_august_2016.pdf .
0
浏览量
0
下载量
4
CSCD
- Meta-XML下载
- BibTeX下载
- Endnote下载
- RefMan 下载
- NoteExpress下载
- NoteFirst下载
关联资源
相关文章
相关作者
相关机构
- 地址：江苏省南京市江宁区诚信大道19号 邮编：310000
- 联系电话：13632102679
- 技术支持由北京北大方正电子有限公司提供 京ICP备09064830号-19
京公网安备11010802024621 - 本系统建议在Chrome、 IE9+ 以上版本浏览器阅读本站内容，360浏览器请切换至极速模式
- Cookies帮助我们提供服务并提供个性化体验。使用本网站，即表示您同意我们使用Cookies