In low-carbon context

the impact of green energy integration on systematic low-carbon benefits is attracting more and more attention. The conventional theoretical methodologies could not evaluate low-carbon benefits precisely. A structural method of probabilistic production simulation is proposed on the lessons of the extensive-form representation. This paper constructs the extensive-form representation of wind farms by selecting the typical scenarios of wind power output based on the same-time characteristic. The unit loading-probability is introduced considering the time-varying characteristics of the load and wind turbines

with the probability calculation

the algorithm can evaluate negative effects on low-carbon benefits of the power system including green energy. Meanwhile

the maintenance of generating units is considered to ensure the optimality of the simulation result and by means of the equalization round-off to effectively restrain the explosion of state number. Finally

the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed algorithms is further verified by cases study.