According to the ways and mechanisms of electrical equipment faults caused by forest fire

a modified model of transmission line fault probability is developed. And an early-warning defense method based on the spatial-temporal distribution of power grid fault probability is proposed. Firstly

by combining forest fire information

geographic environments and meteorological information

the method is able to predict the forest fire behaviors and dynamically assess the transmission line flashover probability. Then

the spatial-temporal distribution fault probability can be obtained so that the higher the risk of potential faults is

the greater concern they will receive

thus raising the early-warning ability of power grids to prevent the forest fire. This work is jointly supported by National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No. 2013CB228204)

the Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 61533010)

China-Thailand Cooperation Fund Project(No. 5151101161)

and Yunnan Power Grid Company(No. YDTZ-F2014-105).