Owing to use of the net demand forecast error in describing the common forecast errors of load and wind power

the risk analysing method based on multi-scenario probability while determining the optimal spinning reserve amount is unable to comprehensively consider wind power uncertainty. For instance

wind power spillage that must be taken into account to ensure network security and economical operation of power systems and the non-normal probability distributions of wind power forecast error. Therefore

the net demand forecast error model in the existing multi-scenario risk analysing methods by the strategy for multi-step modeling is improved to determine the loss-of-load risk of power systems with wind power spillage and different probability distributions of wind power forecast error taken into account. And the penalty cost of wind power spillage is added to the objective function of unit commitment to achieve rational wind power accommodation and optimization of spinning reserve. Simulation studies on a modified IEEE 26-generator reliability test system connected to a wind farm are conducted by the mixed integer linear programming method to verify the effectiveness of the improved model. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61203129

No. 61174038

No. 61473151)

Jiangsu Planned Projects for Postdoctoral Research Funds (No. 1301014A)

and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 30915011104

No. 30920140112005).