
浏览全部资源
扫码关注微信
为促进跨省区输电交易的健康与可持续发展
针对联网送电的跨省区输电工程
宜采用两部制输电定价。对在两部制输电定价过程中如何确定容量费用所占比例的问题
现有方法一般根据经验确定
不能很好应对由于实际输电量不确定而导致的收益过大或不足的风险。在此背景下
发展了不完全信息情形下由输电公司和受电方协商确定两部制输电价格中容量费用比例的风险谈判模型。首先
根据经营期方法确定输电工程的年准许收入
进而分析在实际输电量不确定的情况下
给定不同容量费用比例时双方的期望收益以及用条件风险价值(CVaR)所量度的风险损失。之后
构建了不完全信息情形下的风险谈判模型
双方以保留收益率为约束
以自身面临的风险损失最小为目标
通过估计对方的风险承受能力和谈判策略来确定自身的最优谈判策略。最后
以南方区域西电东送实际输电工程为例说明了所构造模型的基本特征。
The two-part transmission pricing mechanism is suggested for trans-provincial transmission projects orientating for network interconnection and power transmission
so as to promote the healthy and sustainable development of trans-provincial transmission trading. In implementing a two-part transmission pricing mechanism
how to appropriately determine the capacity charging ratio is an issue not well solved
while in the existing two-part mechanisms
the capacity charging ratios are mostly designated by the decision-maker’s preference without solid theoretical justification
and uncertainties associated with actual transmission trading electric quantity are seldom taken into consideration. Given this background
a conditional value at risk(CVaR) based negotiation model is developed for a transmission company and a power purchaser under incomplete information for achieving an agreeable capacity charging ratio. First
the annual allowed income for a trans-provincial transmission project is determined using the well-established operation period method
and then the expected profit and risk loss measured by CVaR under different capacity charging ratios are analyzed considering the uncertainty of actual transmission trading electric quantity. Then
a CVaR-based negotiation model is presented under incomplete information
the objective for each side of the two negotiators is to minimize its risk loss under a given lowest expected profit constraint and the estimations of the opponent’s risk tolerance ability and negotiation strategy
and then to determine an optimal offer. Finally
the west-to-east power transmission project in the southern region of China is employed to demonstrate the basic characteristics of the proposed model. This work is jointly supported by National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2013CB228202) and a project from Electric Power Research Institute of China Southern Power Grid (No. K-KY2012-015).
0
浏览量
1925
下载量
4
CSCD
关联资源
相关文章
相关作者
相关机构
京公网安备11010802024621