Bi-level Energy Scheduling Strategy for Hydrogen-powered Ships Combined with Multi-step Load Forecasting

JIANG Jundao; ZOU Liang; LIU Xingdou; HAN Zhiyun; WANG Rui; PANG Shuo

doi:10.7500/AEPS20241030006

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Bi-level Energy Scheduling Strategy for Hydrogen-powered Ships Combined with Multi-step Load Forecasting

Application Research | 更新时间：2025-07-14

- Bi-level Energy Scheduling Strategy for Hydrogen-powered Ships Combined with Multi-step Load Forecasting
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 49, Issue 13, Pages: 166-176(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.山东大学电气工程学院，山东省济南市 250061
  2.东北大学信息科学与工程学院，辽宁省沈阳市 110819
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFB4300703)
- DOI：10.7500/AEPS20241030006
  CLC：
- Received：30 October 2024，
  
  Revised：2025-01-09，
  
  Published Online：20 February 2025，
  
  Published：10 July 2025
- 稿件说明：
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姜俊道,邹亮,刘星斗等.结合负荷多步预测的氢能船舶双层能量调度策略[J].电力系统自动化,2025,49(13):166-176.

JIANG Jundao,ZOU Liang,LIU Xingdou,et al.Bi-level Energy Scheduling Strategy for Hydrogen-powered Ships Combined with Multi-step Load Forecasting[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2025,49(13):166-176.
姜俊道,邹亮,刘星斗等.结合负荷多步预测的氢能船舶双层能量调度策略[J].电力系统自动化,2025,49(13):166-176. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20241030006.

JIANG Jundao,ZOU Liang,LIU Xingdou,et al.Bi-level Energy Scheduling Strategy for Hydrogen-powered Ships Combined with Multi-step Load Forecasting[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2025,49(13):166-176. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20241030006.

摘要

以氢燃料电池和锂电池作为混合动力系统的氢能船舶逐渐成为绿色航运的发展方向之一。现有的能量调度策略难以实时应对复杂的运行工况和频繁的负荷波动，增加了能源的消耗，加速了电池性能的退化。为降低运行成本，提出一种结合负荷多步预测的双层能量调度策略。首先，针对船舶负荷的高动态性和随机性，建立由鲁棒局部均值分解(RLMD)和基于伊藤过程(IP)改进的向量自回归移动平均(VARIMA)构成的秒级船舶负荷预测模型，对船舶负荷进行实时多步预测。然后，使用双层模型预测控制(MPC)策略进行能量优化调度。结合负荷预测模型给出的船舶未来负荷序列，上层MPC优化氢燃料电池的效率和维持锂电池的健康荷电状态，下层MPC实现燃料成本和两种供能设备退化成本的最小化。最后，氢燃料电池和锂电池依据下层MPC输出的指令信号进行能量调度。试验结果表明，与其他方法相比，所提策略使得氢能船舶运行经济性和耐久性均取得了显著提升。

Abstract

Hydrogen-powered ships using hydrogen fuel cells and lithium batteries as hybrid power system are gradually becoming one of development directions for green shipping. Existing energy scheduling strategies struggle to respond in real time to complex operation conditions and frequent load fluctuations

leading to increasing energy consumption and accelerating degradation of battery performances. To reduce operation costs

a bi-level energy scheduling strategy combined with multi-step load forecasting is proposed. First

to address the high dynamics and randomness of ship loads

a second-level ship load forecasting model is developed. This model integrates robust local mean decomposition (RLMD) and improved vector autoregressive integrated moving average (VARIMA) based on the Itô process (IP)

which performs real-time multi-step forecasting for ship loads. Then

the proposed bi-level model predictive control (MPC) strategy is used for energy optimization scheduling. Combined with the future ship load sequence provided by the load forecasting model

the upper-level MPC optimizes the efficiency of hydrogen fuel cells and keeps the state of charge of lithium batteries in a healthy range

while the lower-level MPC minimizes the fuel costs and degradation costs of both types of energy supply equipment. Finally

hydrogen fuel cells and lithium batteries perform energy scheduling based on the command signals output by the lower-level MPC. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed strategy significantly improves the operation economy and durability of hydrogen-powered ships compared with other methods.

关键词

Keywords

references

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