Estimation and Application of Provincial Time-of-use Value of Lost Load for Enhancing Energy Security

WANG Beibei; CHEN Ying; HU Weihan; MOU Yuting; HU Chenxu; ZOU Peng

doi:10.7500/AEPS20240604002

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Estimation and Application of Provincial Time-of-use Value of Lost Load for Enhancing Energy Security

Basic Research | 更新时间：2025-09-25

- Estimation and Application of Provincial Time-of-use Value of Lost Load for Enhancing Energy Security
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 49, Issue 16, Pages: 22-32(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.东南大学电气工程学院，江苏省南京市 210096
  2.中国电力科学研究院有限公司，北京市 100192
  3.国网山西省电力公司，山西省太原市 030001
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  State Grid Corporation of ChinaFoundation(5108-202355444A-3-2-ZN)
- DOI：10.7500/AEPS20240604002
  CLC：
- Received：04 June 2024，
  
  Revised：2025-04-14，
  
  Published Online：04 July 2025，
  
  Published：25 August 2025
- 稿件说明：
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王蓓蓓,陈颖,胡维涵等.促进能源安全的省级分时失负荷价值估算及应用[J].电力系统自动化,2025,49(16):22-32.

WANG Beibei,CHEN Ying,HU Weihan,et al.Estimation and Application of Provincial Time-of-use Value of Lost Load for Enhancing Energy Security[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2025,49(16):22-32.
王蓓蓓,陈颖,胡维涵等.促进能源安全的省级分时失负荷价值估算及应用[J].电力系统自动化,2025,49(16):22-32. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20240604002.

WANG Beibei,CHEN Ying,HU Weihan,et al.Estimation and Application of Provincial Time-of-use Value of Lost Load for Enhancing Energy Security[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2025,49(16):22-32. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20240604002.

摘要

受一次能源安全危机、“碳达峰·碳中和”目标下新能源渗透率持续提升以及极端天气事件频发等挑战影响，电力行业面临的保供促新能源消纳压力日益增大。失负荷价值(VOLL)能够有效指导各行业分时错峰用电及外送电规划方案的制定。因此，从不同场景下VOLL估算方法入手，首先，基于生产函数法提出一种适应中国国情的省级分时VOLL估算方法。然后，以江苏省、宁夏回族自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区三省（区）的用电数据与经济数据为例，验证了文中所提方法的适用性，并探讨了不同产业结构下的省级VOLL的差异性。最后，将所提省级分时VOLL曲线结合保供促消纳场景应用，评估新能源出力对不同省份地区产业经济的贡献程度，并针对新能源富裕省份，结合地区产业经济发展情况开展外送电规划。

Abstract

The power industry is facing increasing pressure to ensure supply and promote renewable energy consumption due to challenges such as the primary energy security crisis

the continuous increase in the penetration rate of renewable energy under the goal of “carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality”

and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events. Value of lost load (VOLL) can effectively guide the formulation of time-of-use and peak-shaving power consumption and external power transmission planning schemes in various industries. Therefore

starting from the estimation methods of VOLL in various scenarios

first

an estimation method of provincial time-of-use VOLL suitable for China national conditions is proposed based on the production function method. Then

taking the electricity consumption data and economic data of Jiangsu Province

Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as examples

the applicability of the proposed method is verified

and the differences of provincial VOLL under various industrial structures are discussed. Finally

the proposed provincial time-of-use VOLL curves are combined with the application scenarios of ensuring supply and promoting renewable energy consumption to assess the contributions of renewable energy output to the industrial economy of various provinces and regions. For provinces rich in renewable energy

the planning for external power transmission is carried out in combination with the development of regional industrial economy.

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