Risk-Quantified Probabilistic Dispatch for Power System with High Proportion of Renewable Energy

WU Wenchuan; XU Shuwei; YANG Yue; WANG Bin; LIN Chenhui; SHEN Yukang

doi:10.7500/AEPS20230609001

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Risk-Quantified Probabilistic Dispatch for Power System with High Proportion of Renewable Energy

Special Topic on Power Balance and Optimal Dispatching Technology for Power System with High Proportion of Renewable Energy | 更新时间：2025-06-16

- Risk-Quantified Probabilistic Dispatch for Power System with High Proportion of Renewable Energy
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 47, Issue 15, Pages: 3-11(2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系,北京市 100084
  2.新型电力系统运行与控制全国重点实验室(清华大学),北京市 100084
  3.合肥工业大学电气与自动化工程学院,安徽省合肥市 230009
  4.新能源利用与节能安徽省重点实验室(合肥工业大学),安徽省合肥市 230009
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province of China(2021B0101230004);National Natural Science Foundation of China(51725703)
- DOI：10.7500/AEPS20230609001
  CLC：
- Received：09 June 2023，
  
  Revised：2023-06-18，
  
  Published Online：03 July 2023，
  
  Published：10 August 2023
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
吴文传,许书伟,杨越等.风险量化的高比例新能源电力系统概率调度[J].电力系统自动化,2023,47(15):3-11.

WU Wenchuan,XU Shuwei,YANG Yue,et al.Risk-Quantified Probabilistic Dispatch for Power System with High Proportion of Renewable Energy[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2023,47(15):3-11.
吴文传,许书伟,杨越等.风险量化的高比例新能源电力系统概率调度[J].电力系统自动化,2023,47(15):3-11. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20230609001.

WU Wenchuan,XU Shuwei,YANG Yue,et al.Risk-Quantified Probabilistic Dispatch for Power System with High Proportion of Renewable Energy[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2023,47(15):3-11. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20230609001.

摘要

新能源大规模并网给电力系统的运行带来重大技术挑战，传统确定性调度模式缺乏对不确定性条件下的安全风险量化管控，而鲁棒优化调度过于保守。基于随机优化的概率调控技术具有风险可控、统计最优性等特点，但是存在概念与内涵不清、概率建模困难、复杂机会约束模型求解低效等问题，概率调度技术的实际应用面临困难。为此，提出了风险量化的概率调度定义与技术内涵，阐释了处理新能源发电不确定性所遵循的基本原理，然后重点介绍了如下概率调度的关键技术： 1）新能源概率建模的数学基础；2）概率备用决策与机组组合；3）考虑弃电与有序用电的概率日前调度计划；4）随机鲁棒自适应实时调度。最后，简要分析了所提方法在省级电网的应用效果

并对后续的研究进行了展望。

Abstract

The large-scale integration of renewable energy has brought great technical challenges to the operation of power systems. The traditional deterministic dispatch modes ignore the quantification management of safety risks under uncertainties. While

the robust optimal dispatch is over-conservative. The probabilistic dispatch and control technique based on the stochastic optimization has the characteristics of risk controllability and statistical optimality. However

there are problems such as unclear concepts and connotations

difficulties in probabilistic modeling

and low efficiency in solving the complex chance constrained models. The practical application of the probabilistic dispatch technique faces difficulties. Therefore

the definition and technical connotation of risk-quantified probabilistic dispatch are proposed

and the followed basic principles in dealing with the uncertainty of the renewable energy are illustrated. Then the key techniques of risk-quantified probabilistic dispatch are stressed

which include: 1) mathematical basis for probabilistic modeling of the renewable energy; 2) probabilistic reserve decision and unit commitment; 3) probabilistic day-ahead dispatch considering renewable energy curtailment and orderly power utility; 4) stochastic robust adaptive real-time dispatch. Finally

the application effects of the proposed method in provincial power grids are briefly analyzed

and the future research topics are prospected.

关键词

Keywords

references

Department for Business ， Energy & Industrial Strategy ， UK . British energy security strategy ［EB/OL］. ［ 2023-01-10 ］. https：//www.gov.uk/government/publications/british-energy-security-strategy https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/british-energy-security-strategy .

DEKANOZISHVILI M . Consolidation of EU renewable energy policy： renewable energy directive （RED）［M］. Cham， UK ： Palgrave Macmillan ， 2023 ： 101 - 153 .

FAULSTICH M ， FOTH H ， CALLIESS C ， et al . Pathways towards a 100% renewable electricity system ［R］. Berlin， Germany ： German Advisory Council on the Environment ， 2011 .

习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第九次会议［EB/OL］. ［ 2022-11-15 ］. http：//www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-03/15/content_559 3154.htm http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-03/15/content_5593154.htm .

Xi Jinping hosted the 9th Meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Committee ［EB/OL］. ［ 2022-11-15 ］. http：//www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-03/15/content_5593154.htm http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-03/15/content_5593154.htm .

李明节，陈国平，董存，等 . 新能源电力系统电力电量平衡问题研究［J］. 电网技术， 2019 ， 43 （ 11 ）： 3979 - 3986 .

LI Mingjie ， CHEN Guoping ， DONG Cun ， et al . Research on power balance of high proportion renewable energy system ［J］. Power System Technology ， 2019 ， 43 （ 11 ）： 3979 - 3986 .

2019年风电并网运行情况［EB/OL］.［ 2023-02-28 ］. http：//www.nea.gov.cn/2020-02/28/c_138827910.htm http://www.nea.gov.cn/2020-02/28/c_138827910.htm .

Operation conditions of wind power grid integration in 2019 ［EB/OL］. ［ 2023-02-28 ］. http：//www.nea.gov.cn/2020-02/28/c_138827910.htm http://www.nea.gov.cn/2020-02/28/c_138827910.htm .

东北等地拉闸限电发生了什么［EB/OL］.［ 2021-09-27 ］. https：//baijiahao.baidu.com/s？id=1712032424118678843&wfr=spider &for=pc https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1712032424118678843&wfr=spider&for=pc .

What happened to the load shedding in Northeast and other places in China ［EB/OL］. ［ 2022-09-27 ］. https：//baijiahao.baidu.com/s？id=1712032424118678843&wfr=spider&for=pc https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1712032424118678843&wfr=spider&for=pc .

何剑，屠竞哲，孙为民，等 . 美国加州“8·14”、“8·15”停电事件初步分析及启示［J］. 电网技术， 2020 ， 44 （ 12 ）： 4471 - 4478 .

HE Jian ， TU Jingzhe ， SUN Weimin ， et al . Preliminary analysis and lessons of California power outage events on August 14 and 15， 2020 ［J］. Power System Technology ， 2020 ， 44 （ 12 ）： 4471 - 4478 .

Extreme winter weather is disrupting energy supply and demand ， particularly in Texas ［EB/OL］. ［ 2023-02-19 ］. https：//www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php？id=46836 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46836 .

沈伟，吴文传，张伯明，等 . 消纳大规模风电的在线滚动调度策略与模型［J］. 电力系统自动化， 2011 ， 35 （ 22 ）： 136 - 140 .

SHEN Wei ， WU Wenchuan ， ZHANG Boming ， et al . An on-line rolling generation dispatch method and model for accommodating large-scale wind power ［J］. Automation of Electric Power Systems ， 2011 ， 35 （ 22 ）： 136 - 140 .

张伯明，吴文传，郑太一，等 . 消纳大规模风电的多时间尺度协调的有功调度系统设计［J］. 电力系统自动化， 2011 ， 35 （ 1 ）： 1 - 6 .

ZHANG Boming ， WU Wenchuan ， ZHENG Taiyi ， et al . Design of a multi-time scale coordinated active power dispatching system for accommodating large scale wind power penetration ［J］. Automation of Electric Power Systems ， 2011 ， 35 （ 1 ）： 1 - 6 .

魏韡，刘锋，梅生伟 . 电力系统鲁棒经济调度：（一）理论基础［J］. 电力系统自动化， 2013 ， 37 （ 17 ）： 37 - 43 .

WEI Wei ， LIU Feng ， MEI Shengwei . Robust and economical scheduling methodology for power systems： Part one theoretical foundations ［J］. Automation of Electric Power Systems ， 2013 ， 37 （ 17 ）： 37 - 43 .

LI Z G ， WU W C ， ZHANG B M ， et al . Robust look-ahead power dispatch with adjustable conservativeness accommodating significant wind power integration ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy ， 2015 ， 6 （ 3 ）： 781 - 790 .

GUAN Y P ， WANG J H . Uncertainty sets for robust unit commitment ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems ， 2014 ， 29 （ 3 ）： 1439 - 1440 .

ZHAO C Y ， WANG J H ， WATSON J P ， et al . Multi-stage robust unit commitment considering wind and demand response uncertainties ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems ， 2013 ， 28 （ 3 ）： 2708 - 2717 .

LI Z G ， WU W C ， SHAHIDEHPOUR M ， et al . Adaptive robust tie-line scheduling considering wind power uncertainty for interconnected power systems ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems ， 2016 ， 31 （ 4 ）： 2701 - 2713 .

YANG Y E ， WU W C ， WANG B ， et al . Optimal decomposition of stochastic dispatch schedule for renewable energy cluster ［J］. Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy ， 2021 ， 9 （ 4 ）： 711 - 719 .

WU Z ， ZENG P L ， ZHANG X P ， et al . A solution to the chance-constrained two-stage stochastic program for unit commitment with wind energy integration ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems ， 2016 ， 31 （ 6 ）： 4185 - 4196 .

ZHANG Z S ， SUN Y Z ， GAO D W ， et al . A versatile probability distribution model for wind power forecast errors and its application in economic dispatch ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems ， 2013 ， 28 （ 3 ）： 3114 - 3125 .

WANG Z W ， SHEN C ， LIU F ， et al . Chance-constrained economic dispatch with non-Gaussian correlated wind power uncertainty ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems ， 2017 ， 32 （ 6 ）： 4880 - 4893 .

UÇKUN C ， BOTTERUD A ， BIRGE J R . An improved stochastic unit commitment formulation to accommodate wind uncertainty ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems ， 2016 ， 31 （ 4 ）： 2507 - 2517 .

方开泰 . 广义多元分析简介—椭球等高分布族理论［J］. 数学进展， 1987 ， 16 （ 1 ）： 1 - 15 .

FANG Kaitai . Introduction to generalized multivariate analysis—on the theory of elliptically contoured distributions ［J］. Advances in Mathematics ， 1987 ， 16 （ 1 ）： 1 - 15 .

NOLAN J P . Multivariate elliptically contoured stable distributions： theory and estimation ［J］. Computational Statistics ， 2013 ， 28 （ 5 ）： 2067 - 2089 .

XU S W ， WU W C ， YANG Y E ， et al . Analytical solution of stochastic real-time dispatch incorporating wind power uncertainty characterized by Cauchy distribution ［J］. IET Renewable Power Generation ， 2021 ， 15 （ 10 ）： 2286 - 2301 .

YANG Y ， WU W C ， WANG B ， et al . Analytical reformulation for stochastic unit commitment considering wind power uncertainty with Gaussian mixture model ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems ， 2020 ， 35 （ 4 ）： 2769 - 2782 .

XU S W ， WU W C . Tractable reformulation of two-side chance-constrained economic dispatch ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems ， 2022 ， 37 （ 1 ）： 796 - 799 .

XU S ， WU W ， WANG B ， et al . Probabilistic energy and reserve co-dispatch for high-renewable power systems and its convex reformulation ［J/OL］. Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy ［ 2023-04-20 ］. https：//ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10098684/ https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10098684/ .

BISHOP C M . Pattern recognition and machine learning ［M］. New York， USA ： Springer ， 2006 .

WANG Y ， ZHAO S Q ， ZHOU Z ， et al . Risk adjustable day-ahead unit commitment with wind power based on chance constrained goal programming ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy ， 2017 ， 8 （ 2 ）： 530 - 541 .

XU S W ， WU W C ， YANG Y ， et al . Chance-constrained joint dispatch of generation and wind curtailment-load shedding schemes with large-scale wind power integration ［J/OL］. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy ［ 2023-04-20 ］. https：//ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10104113 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10104113 .

YANG Y ， WU W C ， WANG B ， et al . Chance-constrained economic dispatch considering curtailment strategy of renewable energy ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems ， 2021 ， 36 （ 6 ）： 5792 - 5802 .

WU W C ， CHEN J H ， ZHANG B M ， et al . A robust wind power optimization method for look-ahead power dispatch ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy ， 2014 ， 5 （ 2 ）： 507 - 515 .

LI Z G ， WU W C ， ZHANG B M ， et al . Adjustable robust real-time power dispatch with large-scale wind power integration ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy ， 2015 ， 6 （ 2 ）： 357 - 368 .

SHEN Y K ， WU W C ， WANG B ， et al . Data-driven convexification for frequency nadir constraint of unit commitment ［J/OL］. Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy ［ 2023-04-10 ］. https：//ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9831172 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9831172 .

SHEN Y K ， WU W C ， WANG B ， et al . Optimal allocation of virtual inertia and droop control for renewable energy in stochastic look-ahead power dispatch ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy ［ 2023-04-10 ］. https：//ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10064057 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10064057 .

YANG Y E ， WANG Y E ， WU W C . Allocating ex-post deviation cost of virtual power plants in distribution networks ［J］. Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy ， 2023 ， 11 （ 3 ）： 1014 - 1019 .

SHI J T ， GUO Y ， TONG L ， et al . A scenario-oriented approach to energy-reserve joint procurement and pricing ［J］. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems ， 2023 ， 38 （ 1 ）： 411 - 426 .

薛禹胜，王达，文福拴 . 关于紧急控制与校正控制优化和协调的评述［J］. 电力系统自动化， 2009 ， 33 （ 12 ）： 1 - 7 .

XUE Yusheng ， WANG Da ， WEN Fushuan . A review on optimization and coordination of emergency control and correction control ［J］. Automation of Electric Power Systems ， 2009 ， 33 （ 12 ）： 1 - 7 .

Views

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Event-driven Differentiated Dispatch and Control Method for Flexible Distribution System with High Proportion of Renewable Energy

Online Prediction of Power Grid Transient Frequency Trajectories Under Coexistence of Low Voltage Ride-through and Off-grid in Wind Power Generation

Enlightenment from Application of Conventional DC Online Power Flow Reversal for New Power Systems

Continuous Power Flow Considering Multiple Control Modes and Operational Constraints of High Proportion of Renewable Energy

Related Author

YANG Xiaodong

LIU Ruining

WU Hongbin

FANG Hui

YANG Yue

DING Ming

JIANG Tao

LYU Yazhou

Related Institution

Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy Utilization and Energy Saving (Hefei University of Technology)

Ultra High Voltage Company of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co., Ltd.

Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control & Renewable Energy Technology, Ministry of Education (Northeast Electric Power University)

State Grid Electric Power Research Institute (NARI Group Corporation)

Electric Power Research Institute of China Southern Power Grid Company Limited

⁰