Reserve Capacity Determination and Its Cost Allocation Considering Stochastic Characteristics of Renewable Energy

LIU Shuo; YANG Yan; YANG Zhifang; CHEN Qixin

doi:10.7500/AEPS20220621001

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Reserve Capacity Determination and Its Cost Allocation Considering Stochastic Characteristics of Renewable Energy

Basic Research | 更新时间：2025-06-16

- Reserve Capacity Determination and Its Cost Allocation Considering Stochastic Characteristics of Renewable Energy
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 47, Issue 4, Pages: 10-18(2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系,北京市100084
  2.北京电力交易中心有限公司,北京市 100031
  3.计算智能重庆市重点实验室(重庆邮电大学),重庆市 400065
  4.输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室(重庆大学),重庆市 400030
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  National Natural Science Foundation of China(52177072);Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0578)
- DOI：10.7500/AEPS20220621001
  CLC：
- Received：21 June 2022，
  
  Revised：2022-10-24，
  
  Published Online：21 December 2022，
  
  Published：25 February 2023
- 稿件说明：
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刘硕,杨燕,杨知方等.计及新能源随机特性的备用容量确定及其成本分摊[J].电力系统自动化,2023,47(4):10-18.

LIU Shuo,YANG Yan,YANG Zhifang,et al.Reserve Capacity Determination and Its Cost Allocation Considering Stochastic Characteristics of Renewable Energy[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2023,47(4):10-18.
刘硕,杨燕,杨知方等.计及新能源随机特性的备用容量确定及其成本分摊[J].电力系统自动化,2023,47(4):10-18. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20220621001.

LIU Shuo,YANG Yan,YANG Zhifang,et al.Reserve Capacity Determination and Its Cost Allocation Considering Stochastic Characteristics of Renewable Energy[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2023,47(4):10-18. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20220621001.

摘要

预留备用是应对电力系统强不确定性的必要举措，随着电力市场改革的不断推进，如何科学确定备用容量，并将备用费用在各责任方间公平合理地分摊是实现电力市场化改革的关键之一。针对负荷、新能源等不确定性，提出了备用容量估计及其成本分摊方法，根据不确定性预测误差的波动特征确定备用容量，并基于Vickrey-Clarke-Groves(VCG)理论合理分摊备用成本。首先，利用非参数核密度估计方法刻画新能源/负荷预测误差的概率密度曲线，无须假设新能源/负荷服从某一固定分布

并在此基础上提出基于蒙特卡洛法的备用需求场景模拟生成方法，确定备用总容量。然后，根据VCG理论，通过一个市场参与者（新能源/负荷）对其他市场参与者的替代效益进行价值量化，基于价值大小按比例分配备用成本到新能源/负荷一侧。最后，以修改的IEEE 30节点系统以及中国某省级电网661节点系统为例进行仿真分析，验证所提方法的有效性。

Abstract

Standby reserve is a necessary measure to deal with the strong uncertainty of power systems. With the continuous advancement of the electricity market reform

one of the keys is to scientifically determine the reserve capacity and allocate the reserve cost fairly and reasonably among the responsible participants. In view of the uncertainties of load

renewable energy

etc.

this paper proposes a method for reserve capacity estimation and its cost allocation. The reserve capacity is determined according to the fluctuations of uncertainty prediction errors

and the reserve cost is allocated reasonably by Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) theory. First

an estimation method based on non-parametric kernel density is proposed to describe probability density curves of prediction errors for renewable energy/loads. It does not need to assume that the renewable energy follows a fixed distribution. On this basis

scenario simulation generation method of the reserve demand is proposed based on the Monte Carlo method to determine the total reserve capacity. Then

according to the VCG theory

the value of one market participant (the renewable energy/load) is quantified by the substitution benefits of other market participants

and the reserve cost is allocated to the renewable energy/load side proportionally based on the value. Finally

taking the modified IEEE 30-bus system and 661-bus system of a provincial power grid in China as examples for simulation analysis

the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.

关键词

Keywords

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