Transition Path Optimization and Influencing Factor Analysis of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality for Power System of China

Hongyi WEI; Zhenyu ZHUO; Ning ZHANG; Ershun DU; Jinyu XIAO; Peng WANG; Chongqing KANG

doi:10.7500/AEPS20220228009

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Transition Path Optimization and Influencing Factor Analysis of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality for Power System of China

Power Energy Transition for Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality | 更新时间：2025-06-16

- Transition Path Optimization and Influencing Factor Analysis of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality for Power System of China
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 46, Issue 19, Pages: 1-12(2022)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.电力系统及大型发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室,清华大学,北京市 100084
  2.清华大学低碳能源实验室,北京市 100084
  3.全球能源互联网集团有限公司,北京市 100031
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  National Natural Science Foundation of China(52130702)
- DOI：10.7500/AEPS20220228009
  CLC：
- Received：28 February 2022，
  
  Revised：2022-06-21，
  
  Published Online：25 August 2022，
  
  Published：10 October 2022
- 稿件说明：
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魏泓屹,卓振宇,张宁等.中国电力系统碳达峰·碳中和转型路径优化与影响因素分析[J].电力系统自动化,2022,46(19):1-12.

WEI Hongyi,ZHUO Zhenyu,ZHANG Ning,et al.Transition Path Optimization and Influencing Factor Analysis of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality for Power System of China[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2022,46(19):1-12.
魏泓屹,卓振宇,张宁等.中国电力系统碳达峰·碳中和转型路径优化与影响因素分析[J].电力系统自动化,2022,46(19):1-12. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20220228009.

WEI Hongyi,ZHUO Zhenyu,ZHANG Ning,et al.Transition Path Optimization and Influencing Factor Analysis of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality for Power System of China[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2022,46(19):1-12. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20220228009.

摘要

电力系统实现“碳达峰·碳中和”是中国全社会实现“双碳”目标的关键环节，低碳转型过程将深刻影响电力系统的形态结构。首先，以规划总成本为优化目标构建电力系统源网扩展规划模型，考虑可再生能源地区自然资源禀赋和电力系统运行安全约束，对中国电力系统2020年至2060年“碳达峰·碳中和”转型路径进行规划优化。然后，对中国电力系统2060年实现碳中和场景下的电源结构、跨省电力交换需求转型结果及规划成本进行分析，同时针对碳减排目标与达峰时间影响因素设置多种场景进行对比研究，并对电池储能投资成本进行灵敏度分析。研究发现中国电力系统“碳达峰·碳中和”转型路径的关键是构建高比例清洁电源供应体系，通过各类型电源定位互补实现电源结构低碳转型，储能将承担为系统提供电力余缺调节、惯量支撑及各类辅助服务的任务。新型电力系统需要大容量跨省输电网络为电力供应提供支撑，承担风光电力向负荷中心送电任务，呈现更大规模“西电东送、北电南送”格局。碳达峰时间及减排路径需要综合统筹经济、社会、环境、技术等各方面因素以平衡经济性和碳减排进程。

Abstract

The realization of “carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality” （i.e. “dual carbon”） for the power system of China is a critical step to achieve the “dual carbon” goals of the whole society

and the decarbonization transition process will profoundly affect the morphological structure of the power system. First

a generation and transmission expansion planning model is proposed with the optimization objective of the total cost to plan and optimize the transition path of “carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality” of the power system of China from 2020 to 2060 considering the natural resource endowment of renewable energy areas and the security constraints of power system operation. Secondly

the power structure

the transition results of interprovincial electricity exchange requirement

and the cost in the scenario of carbon neutrality for the power system of China in 2060. At the same time

a variety of scenarios are set to compare and study the influencing factors of carbon emission reduction goal and peak time

and the sensitivity analysis of the capital cost of battery energy storage is carried out. It is found that the key to the transition path of “carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality” of the power system of China is to build a high-proportion clean power supply system and realize the low-carbon transition of power structure through the complementarity of various types of power supplies. Energy storage will provide power deficit regulation

inertia support and various auxiliary services for the system. The new power system needs large capacity interprovincial transmission network to provide power supply support

and will undertake the task of wind power transmission to the load center

presenting a larger scale pattern of “west-to-east electricity transmission and north-to-south electricity transmission”. To balance the economy and carbon emission reduction process

carbon emission peak time and emission reduction path should be comprehensively planned considering economic

social

environmental

technological and other factors.

关键词

Keywords

references

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