Analysis on Generation Capacity Adequacy Mechanism Based on System Dynamics

Zeyang LIU; Zhaoxia JING; Qixing SUN; Yun YU; Peipei YOU; Chengren LI

doi:10.7500/AEPS20210826003

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Analysis on Generation Capacity Adequacy Mechanism Based on System Dynamics

Basic Research | 更新时间：2025-06-16

- Analysis on Generation Capacity Adequacy Mechanism Based on System Dynamics
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 46, Issue 14, Pages: 109-118(2022)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.华南理工大学电力学院,广东省广州市 510640
  2.国网能源研究院有限公司,北京市 102209
  3.南方电网数字电网研究院有限公司,广东省广州市 510030
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  State Grid Corporation of China(SGFJJY00JJJS2000067)
- DOI：10.7500/AEPS20210826003
  CLC：
- Received：26 August 2021，
  
  Revised：2021-12-02，
  
  Published Online：24 February 2022，
  
  Published：25 July 2022
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
刘泽扬,荆朝霞,孙启星等.基于系统动力学的发电容量充裕度机制分析[J].电力系统自动化,2022,46(14):109-118.

LIU Zeyang,JING Zhaoxia,SUN Qixing,et al.Analysis on Generation Capacity Adequacy Mechanism Based on System Dynamics[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2022,46(14):109-118.
刘泽扬,荆朝霞,孙启星等.基于系统动力学的发电容量充裕度机制分析[J].电力系统自动化,2022,46(14):109-118. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20210826003.

LIU Zeyang,JING Zhaoxia,SUN Qixing,et al.Analysis on Generation Capacity Adequacy Mechanism Based on System Dynamics[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2022,46(14):109-118. DOI： 10.7500/AEPS20210826003.

摘要

为了解决能源转型过程中电力系统潜在装机容量不足的问题，国外电力市场建立了发电容量充裕度机制，其中以稀缺定价机制、容量补偿机制和容量市场机制最为典型。研究不同机制的效果对于中国充裕度机制的选择具有重要意义。基于美国得克萨斯州的稀缺定价机制、智利的容量补偿机制、美国PJM及英国容量市场的机制，设计构建了适合长期仿真的发电容量演化系统动力学模型。通过净现值评估进行容量退役与投资决策，综合考虑了负荷增长预测的不确定性和市场主体的风险规避。算例仿真对比了3种机制对容量充裕度、机组净收益、社会福利的影响，并进行了风险规避系数的敏感性分析，最后基于数值仿真结果对中国电力市场机制设计提出了建议。

Abstract

To solve the potential shortage problem of the installed capacity of the power system in the process of the energy transition

foreign electricity markets have established generation capacity adequacy mechanisms

among which the scarcity pricing mechanism

the capacity remuneration mechanism and the capacity market mechanism are the most typical. Studying the effects of different mechanisms is of great significance for the selection of China's capacity mechanism. Based on the mechanism design of scarcity pricing in Texas

U.S.

capacity remuneration in Chile

capacity market in PJM

U.S. and U.K.

a system dynamics model of power generation capacity expansion suitable for long-term simulation is constructed. Capacity decommissioning and investment decisions are made through net present value assessment

taking into account the uncertainty of load growth forecasting and the risk aversion of market entities. A numerical example is simulated to compare the impact of the three mechanisms on resource adequacy

generation net income

and social welfare

and a sensitivity analysis of the risk aversion coefficient is carried out. Finally

based on the numerical simulation results

some suggestions are given for the mechanism design of the electricity market of China.

关键词

Keywords

references

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