The large fluctuation of short-term wind power brings significant challenges to power grid operation in terms of stability and security. In order to accurately assess the wind power accommodation of power systems in a short period
it is necessary to consider the forecasting error. In view of this
this paper proposes a probability interval optimization (PIO) model to evaluate the impact of wind power forecasting error on power system operation from the perspective of profit and risk
which aims to obtain the optimal dispatch scheme considering both profit and risk. In the PIO model
the uncertain wind power is formulated as a probability interval variable
i.e.
each wind power corresponds to a distribution probability. The profit is measured by the difference of operation cost between the same power system with and without the integration of wind power
and the risk is assessed by the distribution probability of wind power. Then the optimization objective is formulated as the conditional expectation with respect to profit and risk. Finally
numerical results are conducted in a dispatch system to compare the performance of the proposed model with the interval optimization model. The reliability
robustness and applicability of the proposed model is verified.