基于Sobol’法的孤岛微电网潮流全局灵敏度分析

HE Kun

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基于Sobol’法的孤岛微电网潮流全局灵敏度分析

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 基于Sobol’法的孤岛微电网潮流全局灵敏度分析
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 42, Issue 14, Pages: 99-106(2018)
- 作者机构：
  
  电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室(上海交通大学),上海市,200240
- 作者简介：
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- Published：2018
- 稿件说明：
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HE Kun. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2018, 42(14): 99-106.
DOI：

HE Kun. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2018, 42(14): 99-106. DOI：

摘要

随着可再生能源发电在微电网中的渗透率不断提高，微电网运行的不确定性显著增加，有必要准确评估输入变量对微电网状态的影响，以提高系统的运行控制水平。计及孤岛微电网中分布式电源和负荷的不确定性，基于有功-频率/无功-电压的下垂控制策略，构建了综合控制下的孤岛微电网概率潮流计算模型，并采用具有鲁棒性的自适应LM(Levenberg-Marquardt)算法进行求解。在此基础上，针对系统状态的不确定性，基于Sobol’全局灵敏度理论，建立了一种考虑源荷不确定性的孤岛微电网概率潮流灵敏度分析法，用于辨识影响系统状态的关键因素。通过对有多台分布式电源接入的33节点孤岛交流微电网系统进行仿真，获得了各输入变量的一阶灵敏度和总灵敏度，分析了输入变量对系统状态的影响，验证了所提方法的有效性。

Abstract

With higher and higher penetration rate of renewable energy sources in the microgrid

the uncertainty of microgrid operation is increasing remarkably. So it is necessary to evaluate the impact of input variables on the state of system to improve the control level of system operation. This paper considers the uncertainty of distributed generators(DGs)and loads in the islanded microgrid

and proposes a robust Levenberg-Marquardt(LM)method based on P-f/Q-U droop control method to solve the probabilistic power flow(PPF)model of the islanded AC microgrid under integrated control strategy. Based on the uncertainty of system state

a global sensitivity analysis(SA)method based on Sobol' theory is proposed to analyze the sensitivity of islanded microgrid PPF. This method can identify the key random input variables influencing the system state. Finally

the 33-node islanded microgrid with several DGs is simulated. The first order sensitivity and total sensitivity of input factors are calculated to analyze the influence of input variables on the system state

and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.

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