碳市场风险的分析与控制：(二)沙盘推演

JIANG Chao

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碳市场风险的分析与控制：(二)沙盘推演

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 碳市场风险的分析与控制：(二)沙盘推演
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 42, Issue 14, Pages: 1-7(2018)
- 作者机构：
  
  南京理工大学自动化学院,江苏省,南京市,210094
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2018
- 稿件说明：
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JIANG Chao. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2018, 42(14): 1-7.
DOI：

JIANG Chao. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2018, 42(14): 1-7. DOI：

摘要

作为前一论文的续篇，在大能源系统动态仿真平台(DSMES)上，按欧盟碳排放交易体系(EU ETS)及具体数据建立了模拟微观交易行为的碳市场模型，仿真模拟了欧洲碳市场第2阶段(2008—2012年)全球金融危机及欧洲债务危机对价格的动态影响。在不同扰动场景下，以配额调节为主要控制措施，推演了预防控制、紧急控制及其协调控制有效降低风险的效果，验证了系列论文首篇提出的碳市场风险防控框架及沙盘推演的理念对监管机构协调优化决策的支撑。

Abstract

As a sequel to the previous paper

based on the dynamic simulation platform for macro energy systems(DSMES)

this paper constructs a carbon market model which can simulate micro-trading behavior

according to the European Union Emissions Trading System(EU ETS)and relevant specific data. Based on this model

the dynamic impacts of the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis on carbon prices in the second phase(from 2008 to 2012)of EU ETS are simulated. Furthermore

taking allowance adjustments as the major control measure

this sand-table simulates the risk reducing effects of the preventive control

emergency control and coordinated control under different disturbance scenarios

which verifies the proposed carbon market risk defense framework and the concept of sand-table simulation can support the regulatory to coordinate and optimize their strategies.

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