湖南电网山火告警风险及故障时间间隔分布规律

ZHOU Tejun

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湖南电网山火告警风险及故障时间间隔分布规律

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 湖南电网山火告警风险及故障时间间隔分布规律
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 42, Issue 10, Pages: 135-142(2018)
- 作者机构：
  
  电网输变电设备防灾减灾国家重点实验室(国网湖南省电力有限公司),湖南省,长沙市,410007
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
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- Published：2018
- 稿件说明：
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ZHOU Tejun. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2018, 42(10): 135-142.
DOI：

ZHOU Tejun. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2018, 42(10): 135-142. DOI：

摘要

输电线路故障规律的研究对电网的运行维护具有重要的实际意义。首先，利用湖南电网输电线路山火广域监测数据和输电线路故障数据，对输电线路山火告警风险和输电线路故障的时间丛集性特征开展了研究，发现了输电线路山火告警风险的“日告警数-频率”满足幂律关系，验证了包含所有触发因素的输电线路故障“时间间隔-频率”累积概率分布满足指数关系。然后，基于Fano因子和Allan因子发现了输电线路故障时间序列具有自相似性，分析并获得了山火、雷击、冰灾等不同故障原因的输电线路故障“时间间隔-频率”累积概率分布满足分段幂律关系，确定了输电线路故障存在两个时间尺度的动力学过程。最后，得到的研究成果可为输电线路山火告警风险和输电线路故障的预测预报提供理论依据。

Abstract

The research of the fault law for transmission line has great significant in the state grid maintenance. Firstly

according to the widely monitoring data of wildfire warning and fault data of transmission line in Hunan grid

a study has been conducted on the time clustering characteristic of the wildfire warning risk and fault for transmission line of Hunan power grid

which finds that the number of wildfire warnings risk of transmission line per day follows a power law distribution and the probability distribution of the time interval-frequency including all the triggering factors is verified to satisfy the exponential relationship. Then

the self-similarity of faults time sequences for transmission lines is certificated based on the Allan factor and Fano factor. Further analysis shows that the cumulative probability distribution of time interval-frequency for transmission line faults caused by different natural hazards

such as wildfire

lightning

ice disaster

follows a piecewise power law distribution. The dynamical properties with two time scales of transmission line faults are analyzed. Finally

the research results obtained can provide the theoretical reference for the prediction of wildfire warning risk and faults of transmission line.

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Related Institution

Faculty of Electric Power Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology

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School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Harbin Institute of Technology

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State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology(Chongqing University)

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