高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化及电力预测展望

LU Zongxiang

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高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化及电力预测展望

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化及电力预测展望
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 41, Issue 9, Pages: 12-18(2017)
- 作者机构：
  
  清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系,北京市,100084
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
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- Published：2017
- 稿件说明：
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LU Zongxiang. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2017, 41(9): 12-18.
DOI：

LU Zongxiang. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2017, 41(9): 12-18. DOI：

摘要

在清洁化、低碳化和智能化的能源革命背景下，高比例可再生能源成为电力系统未来发展的一个突出特征，也导致了电力系统结构形态的巨变。文中对高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化及电力预测方法进行了阐述。首先分析了电力系统结构形态的内涵及其要素，建立了其形态演化的驱动力综合模型，然后结合高比例可再生能源发展趋势，分析其对电力系统形态结构的影响，建立高比例可再生能源驱动的电力系统形态演化模型。围绕高比例可再生能源电力系统结构形态演化机理和复杂多重不确定性运行场景下的电力预测理论两个科学问题，分四个方面对其研究体系进行了详细阐述。

Abstract

In the midst of clean

low-carbon and smart energy revolution

a high proportion of renewable energy integration will be one of the basic characteristics of future electric power system that leads to tremendous changes in the morphological changes. And it also introduces the morphological evolution of generation

transmission

distribution and load of the system as a whole. The topology evolution model and power forecasting method of the future electric power systems are reviewed. The elements of the electric power system morphology and driving model are described first. Then based on analyzing the development trend of high proportion renewable energy generations

a future power system morphological evolution model is proposed. Key scientific issues are concluded as: 1)morphological evolution mechanism of power system with a high proportion of renewable energy; 2)power forecasting of complex multiple uncertainty operation scenarios. Suitable research framework is divided into four aspects and analyzed in detail.

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