基于短期覆冰预测的电网覆冰灾害风险评估方法

YAN Mingyu

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基于短期覆冰预测的电网覆冰灾害风险评估方法

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 基于短期覆冰预测的电网覆冰灾害风险评估方法
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 40, Issue 21, Pages: 168-175(2016)
- 作者机构：
  
  强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室(华中科技大学),湖北省,武汉市,430074
- 作者简介：
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- Published：2016
- 稿件说明：
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YAN Mingyu. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2016, 40(21): 168-175.
DOI：

YAN Mingyu. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2016, 40(21): 168-175. DOI：

摘要

冰雪灾害会严重影响电力系统的安全稳定运行。为准确评估覆冰情况下电网所面临的风险

提出了基于短期覆冰预测的电网覆冰灾害风险评估方法。该方法根据覆冰预测系统预测得到未来数天内的输电线路覆冰厚度

根据时变结构可靠性理论建立了输电线路时变失效率模型

建立了考虑融冰装置的输电线路修复时间模型与融冰装置使用间隔时间的模型;针对传统序贯蒙特卡洛法难以反映覆冰线路时变失效率的问题

提出一种可考虑时变失效率的序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法

并将其用于覆冰灾害下的风险评估。以IEEE RTS-79系统为研究对象

验证了所提模型与方法的有效性;分析了覆冰预测间隔时间和融冰装置数量对电网风险的影响

并给出了相关建议。

Abstract

Ice storm disaster has various negative impacts on power grid security and stability. To evaluate the power grid risk accurately

a risk assessment method for power grid icing based on short-time icing forecast is proposed. The ice and wind loads on lines can be forecasted by the icing forecast system. The time-varying failure rates of transmission lines can be calculated by the time-varying structure reliability theory. A restoration time model of transmission line with DC deicer is built as is a time interval model of deicer. Owing to the incapability of reflecting the time-varying failure rate of iced lines using the traditional Monte Carlo method

a sequential Monte Carlo method of solving this rate is proposed. The proposed model is tested on an IEEE RTS-79 system. The effects of the time interval of icing forecast and deicer on risk indices are analyzed and related suggestions made. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 51577075).

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Risk Assessment of Cascading Failures in Flexible Interconnected Power Distribution System

输电线路动态增容运行风险评估

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