基于渗流和风险理论的电力系统连锁故障分析

ZHANG Juan

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基于渗流和风险理论的电力系统连锁故障分析

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 基于渗流和风险理论的电力系统连锁故障分析
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 41, Issue 5, Pages: 46-52(2017)
- 作者机构：
  
  西南交通大学电气工程学院,四川省,成都市,610031
- 作者简介：
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- Published：2017
- 稿件说明：
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ZHANG Juan. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2017, 41(5): 46-52.
DOI：

ZHANG Juan. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2017, 41(5): 46-52. DOI：

摘要

基于渗流理论结合电气性质研究连锁故障发展机理，探索故障发展路径。首先构建了支路故障渗流概率模型，结合支路健康度指标、重要度指标综合得到支路故障停运概率模型，可以辨识正常运行状态下系统脆弱支路、预测故障运行状态下系统故障支路。其次，构建了系统连锁故障路径综合后果指标，结合路径发生概率构建路径风险评估模型，全面诊断分析连锁故障可能发展路径。最后，以IEEE 39节点系统的算例验证了所述方法的有效性。

Abstract

The cascading failure mechanism is studied based on percolation theory combined with electrical properties to explore the fault development path. Firstly

a branch fault percolation probability model is built. By combining with the branch health degree index and importance index

the branch outage probability model is obtained

which could identify a fragile branch in normal operation state of the system and predict a fault branch in fault running state. Secondly

the comprehensive consequence index of the cascading failure path is established. Combined with the path probability

a path risk assessment model is built

which could diagnose and analyze the cascading failure path. Finally

the validity of this method is verified using an IEEE 39 bus system.

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