Automation of Electric Power SystemsVol. 40, Issue 1, Pages: 66-71(2016)
作者机构:
输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室(重庆大学),重庆市,400044
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Published:2016
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ZHAO Yuan. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2016, 40(1): 66-71.
DOI:
ZHAO Yuan. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2016, 40(1): 66-71.DOI:
电网可靠性评估中随机变量的高斯混合模型
摘要
电网可靠性评估通过对不确定性因素对电网运行性能影响的概率量化诊断
可深度揭示电网的风险水平并实现风险的溯源辨识
因此
不确定性因素的概率建模准确性成为可靠性评估的基础和应用前提。为实现计算精度和计算效率的综合兼顾
提出了多维随机变量的高斯混合模型
可以对任意分布的连续型随机变量进行灵活高效建模
且易于计及多维随机变量间的相关性变化规律。提出两阶段复合抽样方法对所建高斯混合模型进行抽样模拟
能够有效生成随机样本进行可靠性评估。最后
以负荷概率建模为例
对IEEE-RTS79测试系统进行可靠性评估
从模型精度和可靠性评估有效性两个方面验证了所述方法的正确性和可行性。
Abstract
Reliability assessment of power system reveals the level of risk and conducts risk identification via quantitative diagnosis of the impact of uncertainty factors on power system operation. Therefore
the modeling accuracy of uncertainty factors has become the foundation and application premise of reliability assessment of power system. A semi-parametric Gaussian mixture model (GMM) for multiple random variables
which combines the advantages of parametric and non-parametric model
is proposed with both accuracy and computational efficiency taken into account. Based on the GMM
arbitrarily distributed continuous random variables can be modeled flexibly and efficiently and the correlation between variables is conveniently considered. A two-stage complex sampling method is employed to generate random samples of GMM in Monte Carlo simulation of reliability assessment. With the probabilistic modeling of electric load and wind speed as an example
IEEE-RTS79 is used to demonstrate the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed model.