复合自然灾害下的电力系统稳定性分析

XUE Yusheng

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复合自然灾害下的电力系统稳定性分析

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 复合自然灾害下的电力系统稳定性分析
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 40, Issue 4, Pages: 10-18(2016)
- 作者机构：
  
  南瑞集团公司(国网电力科学研究院),江苏省,南京市,211106
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2016
- 稿件说明：
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XUE Yusheng. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2016, 40(4): 10-18.
DOI：

XUE Yusheng. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2016, 40(4): 10-18. DOI：

摘要

对自然灾害停电防御的研究至今局限于单种类的自然灾害，而未计及复合灾害之间的推波助澜。自然灾害往往会造成群发性故障，为了防御小概率高风险的复合自然灾害造成大停电，需要在线跟踪外部环境的变化并有效预警。为此提出复合自然灾害造成的群发性故障的风险分析思路和框架，一方面建立电网支路在复合自然灾害下的故障率模型并计算其相关风险，另一方面考虑多种自然灾害的交互影响，在线筛选潜在故障，分析运行的安全稳定性，并提供决策支持。

Abstract

The blackout prevention research against natural disasters has been limited to a single disaster so far

to the neglect of the enhancement effects between intercurrent disasters. As natural disasters often cause power system cluster faults

on-line tracking of external environment changes and effective early warning are needed to guard against blackouts caused by high risk intercurrent natural disasters with low probability. Therefore

a new line of risk analyzing thought as well as a scheme for cluster faults due to intercurrent natural disasters is proposed. On one hand

fault probability models should be developed and the risk of power grid branches under intercurrent natural disasters calculated and on the other

the interactive influence of multiple natural disasters should be considered

potential faults should be screened on line

power system operational security and stability analyzed

and decision support given.

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