广义极值理论在大停电事故损失负荷预测中的应用

YU Qun

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广义极值理论在大停电事故损失负荷预测中的应用

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 广义极值理论在大停电事故损失负荷预测中的应用
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 40, Issue 8, Pages: 71-77(2016)
- 作者机构：
  
  山东科技大学电气与自动化工程学院,山东省,青岛市,266590
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
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- Published：2016
- 稿件说明：
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YU Qun. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2016, 40(8): 71-77.
DOI：

YU Qun. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2016, 40(8): 71-77. DOI：

摘要

近年来随着区域电网的互联升级，大停电事故的风险随之增加。对停电风险进行预测，具有重要的现实意义。文中应用广义极值分布模型来预测电网停电事故损失负荷。首先，通过对1981至2012年全国电网停电事故损失负荷数据的分析，证明了损失负荷数据不适合直接作为极值分析的样本；然后采用相对值法对停电事故损失数据进行处理，以消除电网规模变化对数据分析的影响，给出了广义极值下的预测模型；最后，以1997至2012年的相对值数据对未来全国电网的事故概率及损失负荷情况进行了预测，进而推算出各区域电网对应的事故损失负荷预测值，并通过实际事故数据验证了所述方法的可行性。

Abstract

In recent years

the occurrence of large-scale blackout has been increasing with the increased interconnection upgrading of the regional power grids. It has great realistic significance for prediction of blackout risk. In this paper

a prediction model based on generalized extreme value(GEV)is applied to predicting power loss of large-scale blackouts in power grids. Firstly

according to an analysis of Chinese power grid blackout data from 1981 to 2011 by the extreme value distribution suitability text

it is found that the power loss data is not suitable for extreme value analysis. Secondly

a prediction model based on generalized extreme value distribution is put forward after the relative value method for data processing to eliminate the influence of power grid scale variation. Finally

the blackout probability and power loss of Chinese power grids in the future are predicted by using the relative power loss data from 1997 to 2012

and then the predicted value of the corresponding blackout's power loss in Chinese regional power grids is calculated. The feasibility of the proposed method is proven by actual blackout data.This work is supported by State Grid Corporation of China.

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