电网运行风险评估与定级体系的构建及应用

WANG Yifeng

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电网运行风险评估与定级体系的构建及应用

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 电网运行风险评估与定级体系的构建及应用
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 39, Issue 8, Pages: 141-148(2015)
- 作者机构：
  
  浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省,杭州市,310027
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2015
- 稿件说明：
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WANG Yifeng. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2015, 39(8): 141-148.
DOI：

WANG Yifeng. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2015, 39(8): 141-148. DOI：

摘要

为解决风险指标体系在工程应用中存在的评估细节反映不足和风险信息不够充分的缺陷

文中提出了一种电网运行风险评估与定级体系。首先

在结构上将风险重新定义为等级、类别、概率、严重程度、原因集和后果集的集合

在类别上将风险分为减供负荷、重载或过载、电压偏移、电网解列、厂站全停和重要用户全停。其次

设计了各类风险发生概率等级、严重程度等级及风险综合等级的定级方法。最后

从信息采集、风险辨识、风险评估、风险定级和风险预警五个环节设计了体系流程

并对该体系的应用效果作了说明。

Abstract

To solve engineering application defects such as lack of assessment details and risk information in the risk index system

this paper presents a power grid operation risk assessment and rating system. Firstly

redefine the risk structure as a set of risk grade

risk kind

risk probability

risk severity

reason set and consequence set

while classifying risk categories as loss of load

overload

voltage deviation

grid splitting

blackout of plant/station

and blackout of important users. Secondly

design the rating method of risk probability grade

risk severity grade and risk grade. Finally

divide the system flow into five parts as information collection

risk identification

risk assessment

risk rating and risk warning

and illustrate the system application effects in Dispatch and Control Center of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Company. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51177143)

Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (No. LZ12E07002) and National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (No. 2011AA05A120).

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