Automation of Electric Power SystemsVol. 39, Issue 8, Pages: 5-11(2015)
作者机构:
南京理工大学自动化学院,江苏省,南京市,210094
作者简介:
基金信息:
DOI:
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Published:2015
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YU Chen. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2015, 39(8): 5-11.
DOI:
YU Chen. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2015, 39(8): 5-11.DOI:
按时序特征优化模型后在线选配的超短期风电预测
摘要
讨论超短期风电功率预测(USTWPP)模型的适用性。提出的USTWPP方法
从历史数据的风电功率时间序列(WPTS)中筛选特征量
选择门限值
并将短窗口内的WPTS划分为不同形态的子集
以及一个囊括所有不具有排他性分类特征的“非形态子集”。然后在离线环境下
分别按对应的训练样本优化各子集专用的预测模型及参数。在线应用时
将当前时刻前一个短窗口的WPTS与各子集的分类判据比对
以归入上述子集之一
然后调用相应的预测模型完成USTWPP。最后
以实际算例验证了该方法的有效性。
Abstract
The applicability of ultra-short-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) models is reviewed. The USTWPP method proposed extracts featrues from historical data of wind power time series (WPTS)
and classifies every short WPTS into one of several different subsets well defined by stationary patterns. All the WPTS that cannot match any one of the stationary patterns are sorted into the subset of nonstationary pattern. Every above WPTS subset needs a USTWPP model specially optimized for it offline. For on-line application
the pattern of the last short WPTS is recognized
then the corresponding prediction model is called for USTWPP. The validity of the proposed method is verified by simulations. This work is jointly supported by National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2013CB228204)
Australian Research Council Project (No. DP120101345)