基于Nataf变换的电网不确定性多点估计法

HAN Haiteng

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基于Nataf变换的电网不确定性多点估计法

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 基于Nataf变换的电网不确定性多点估计法
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 39, Issue 7, Pages: 28-34(2015)
- 作者机构：
  
  东南大学电气工程学院,江苏省,南京市,210096
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2015
- 稿件说明：
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HAN Haiteng. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2015, 39(7): 28-34.
DOI：

HAN Haiteng. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2015, 39(7): 28-34. DOI：

摘要

在当前电力系统的规划与运行中

由于电力元件本身运行状态、数据采集及可再生能源的多点接入等因素

电力系统被引入诸多不确定性。在这些不确定性中

系统潮流的不确定性问题尤为突出。当系统的注入功率产生随机波动时

系统潮流会随之波动。针对不确定性潮流问题

在传统点估计法的基础上提出一种改进的基于Nataf变换和Gauss-Hermite积分技术的多点估计法

通过将不确定性潮流问题转化为多随机变量响应函数后进行求解。首先根据Gauss-Hermite积分技术获取标准正态空间上的多估计点及对应权重系数

经由Nataf逆变换求得原始空间的多估计点

进而通过潮流计算得到节点电压幅值和相角、支路有功功率和无功功率以及对应的统计信息。仿真结果表明

文中算法较传统的点估计法计算精度有明显提高

且精度会随着选取估计点数的增加而提高。

Abstract

In the planning and operation of current power system

a number of uncertainties have been brought into the power system because of electric components’ operating state

data collection and multipoint access of renewable energy

etc. Of these uncertainties

the most prominent is the uncertain power flow

which will fluctuate when stochastic fluctuation is generated by the nodes’ injected power. To solve this problem

an improved multi-point estimate method of solving uncertain power flow based on Nataf transformation and Gauss-Hermite integration is proposed. The basic idea is to change the uncertain problem of power flow into a response function with multiple random variables. Firstly

the multi-estimate points in the standard normal space and the relevant weight can be obtained according to Gauss-Hermite integration. Secondly

the estimate points in the original variable space can be obtained by Nataf transformation. With the estimate points in the original variable space and the relevant weight

the node voltage amplitude and phase angle

the branch active and reactive power can be easily calculated statistically. Simulations show that the results obtained by the improved multi-point estimate method have a higher precision compared with the traditional point estimate method. In addition

the precision of the calculation results will be improved if the number of selected estimate points is increased. This work is supported by National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (No. 2011AA05A105) and State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company (No. GHJS1400036).

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