计及分布式电源出力相关性的微电网发电系统可靠性评估

LUO Yi

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计及分布式电源出力相关性的微电网发电系统可靠性评估

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 计及分布式电源出力相关性的微电网发电系统可靠性评估
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 38, Issue 12, Pages: 34-38(2014)
- 作者机构：
  
  华南理工大学电力学院,广东省,广州市,510640
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2014
- 稿件说明：
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LUO Yi. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2014, 38(12): 34-38.
DOI：

LUO Yi. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2014, 38(12): 34-38. DOI：

摘要

为了揭示分布式电源（DG）出力相关性对微电网发电系统可靠性的影响，利用Nataf概率变换原理和多重Gauss数值积分方法获得非标准正态分布相关关系的数学模型。在计及DG强迫停运、非线性出力等因素的基础上，建立了微电网发电系统可靠性评估模型，基于蒙特卡洛方法实现可靠性指标的求解。通过算例定量分析DG出力特性、微电网内DG总容量与负荷容量比、一次能源相关系数变化对微电网发电系统可靠性指标的影响，验证了所述模型和方法的有效性。

Abstract

In order to reveal the effect of output correlation of distributed generators (DGs) on the microgrid generation system reliability

the probability transformation of Nataf and the Gauss multi-numerical integration are used to obtain the mathematical model for the correlation obeying non-normal distribution. Then

on the basis of considering several elements affecting reliability

such as the force outage and the nonlinear output of DGs

an assessment model for microgrid generation reliability is proposed

and the Monte-Carlo method is used to solve the model. In the case

by analyzing the reliability indices under the influence of output characteristics of DGs

the ratio of total DG capacity versus load capacity and variation of primary energy correlation coefficient

the proposed model and method are validated.

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