配电网可靠性概率分布的解析模型和非参数估计

ZHAO Yuan

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配电网可靠性概率分布的解析模型和非参数估计

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 配电网可靠性概率分布的解析模型和非参数估计
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 38, Issue 1, Pages: 38-43(2014)
- 作者机构：
  
  重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室,重庆市,400044
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
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- Published：2014
- 稿件说明：
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ZHAO Yuan. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2014, 38(1): 38-43.
DOI：

ZHAO Yuan. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2014, 38(1): 38-43. DOI：

摘要

为了揭示配电网可靠性的概率分布特征和内在随机变化规律，提出了配电网可靠性概率分布的解析计算模型和非参数核密度估计算法。考虑元件工作和修复时间为指数及非指数分布，分别从系统级和节点层对配电网可靠性指标采用随机函数进行解析表征，再进一步结合非参数核密度估计技术，实现了可靠性指标随机函数表达式的概率分布计算。其中，计及元件工作和修复时间为非指数分布可使评估结果更接近工程实际。通过对RBTS-BUS6测试系统的算例分析，验证了所述方法的有效性。

Abstract

An analytical model and non-parametric kernel density estimation approach are proposed for probability distribution calculation of distribution system reliability indices.In view of the fact that the time for work and repair of the system components is exponentially and non-exponentially distributed，analytical characterization for the reliability indices of the distribution network is conducted from the system level and the nodal layer using the random function，respectively.Furthermore，by referring to the non-parametric kernel density estimation technology，the probability distribution calculation is implemented for the expression of the reliability indices random function.With this method，it can be seen that taking into account that the time for work and repair of components will make the estimation results closer to engineering practice.Simulation results of RBTS-BUS6system show that the proposed method is effective.

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