太阳能光伏发电的中长期随机特性分析

ZHANG Xi

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太阳能光伏发电的中长期随机特性分析

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 太阳能光伏发电的中长期随机特性分析
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 38, Issue 6, Pages: 6-13(2014)
- 作者机构：
  
  清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系,北京市,100084
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2014
- 稿件说明：
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ZHANG Xi. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2014, 38(6): 6-13.
DOI：

ZHANG Xi. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2014, 38(6): 6-13. DOI：

摘要

掌握光伏发电的随机特性对于含光伏发电的电力系统规划及运行具有重要意义。提出了一种光伏电站出力随机特性的分析方法

将光伏发电出力的确定性因素与不确定因素相分离

首先采用全球太阳辐射强度模型对光伏发电出力的确定性成分建模

同时引入光伏出力遮挡因子的概念对光伏发电出力的不确定性成分建模

从而形成光伏发电出力的完整模型描述。采用实证分析的方法

从概率分布、波动特性等方面研究了光伏出力遮挡因子的随机特性

并分析了光伏出力的空间相关性。

Abstract

In light of the significance of the random characteristics of photovoltaic (PV) power generation to research on power system planning and operation involving PV

an analytic method is proposed for assessing the stochastic characteristics of PV power stations by separating the certainty and uncertainty stochastic parts of PV output time series. The global solar radiation model is adopted first to model the certainty part of the PV output

while the concept of PV output shedding factor is introduced to assess the uncertainty part of PV output to form a complete model description. By means of empirical analysis of real data of PV

the stochastic characteristics of the PV output shedding factor

in terms of the probabilistic distribution and the intermittency are investigated along with the spatial correlation of PV output.

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