空间负荷预测中的负荷时序消差方法

XIAO Bai; MU Gang; LI Ping; YANG Youhong; YAN Hao; YANG Chenjun

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空间负荷预测中的负荷时序消差方法

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 空间负荷预测中的负荷时序消差方法
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 34, Issue 16, Pages: 50-54(2010)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 东北电力大学微通电力系统研究室,吉林市,吉林省,132012
  2. 吉林省电力有限公司,吉林省,长春市,130021
  3. 吉林省吉林供电公司,吉林市,吉林省,132001
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
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- Published：2010
- 稿件说明：
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XIAO Bai, MU Gang, LI Ping, et al. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2010, 34(16): 50-54.
DOI：

XIAO Bai, MU Gang, LI Ping, et al. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2010, 34(16): 50-54. DOI：

摘要

通过分析影响基于时序的空间负荷预测（SLF）精度的主要因素，提出一种用于识别和校正负荷转移的负荷时序消差方法。将元胞之间经常出现的非永久性负荷转移分为跨单位时间型和非跨单位时间型2种，对前一种采用改进的负荷转移耦合法实现负荷时序消差，对后一种采用基于累积负荷曲线确定元胞负荷最大值的算法实现负荷时序消差，从而降低元胞之间负荷转移对SLF精度的不利影响。通过算例验证了基于负荷时序消差的SLF效果，结果表明该方法实用、有效。

Abstract

By an analysis of the main factors that cause inaccuracies in the spatial load forecast（SLF） method based on time series， a time series mismatch corrective method for identifying and correcting load transfer is proposed. The temporary load transfer often occurring between cellules is divided into two types， i.e. cross-unit time load transfer and non-cross-unit time load transfer. With the time series mismatch corrective method， improved load transfer coupling（LTC） is used to overcome the negative impact on the SLF due to cross-unit time load transfer， while the cumulative load curve for determining the maximum load of each cellule is used to overcome the negative impact on the SLF due to non-cross-unit time load transfer. A practical SLF case has shown the applicability and effectiveness of the method proposed.

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