电力系统运行风险评估中元件时变停运模型分析

NING Liaoyi; WU Wenchuan; ZHANG Boming

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电力系统运行风险评估中元件时变停运模型分析

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 电力系统运行风险评估中元件时变停运模型分析
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 33, Issue 16, Pages: 7-12(2009)
- 作者机构：
  
  清华大学电机系电力系统国家重点实验室,北京市,100084
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
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- Published：2009
- 稿件说明：
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NING Liaoyi, WU Wenchuan, ZHANG Boming. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2009, 33(16): 7-12.
DOI：

NING Liaoyi, WU Wenchuan, ZHANG Boming. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2009, 33(16): 7-12. DOI：

摘要

电力系统设备发生故障的可能性是随外部天气条件、老化程度等运行工况变化而变的，因此在运行风险评估中需要采用时变的设备停运模型。文中对现有文献中故障率的定义进行了分类和分析，论证了泊松过程停运模型中的故障率和马尔可夫过程停运模型中的状态转移速率之间的关系，并给出了时变故障率下的马尔可夫过程建模的条件和建模方法。基于上述结论，进一步提出对于暴露型设备停运可采用马尔可夫过程模型描述;而封闭型设备必须采用非马尔可夫模型。最后，给出典型暴露型设备（架空线路）和典型封闭型设备（变压器）的时变停运模型，并进行了算例分析。

Abstract

A time-varying and condition-based component outage model is needed for operation risk assessment， which should consider the change of weather， aging degree and other operation conditions. Various existing definitions of the failure rate， the hazard rate and their relation are well analyzed. The relationship between the failure rate in Poisson process model and the state transition rate in Markov process model is presented. The conditions and the method to formulate component outage models using Markov process in time-varying condition are introduced. Based on the above research， in can be concluded that Markov model is fit for overhead transmission lines and the non-Markov model must be used for transformers. Finally， two different time-varying component outage models for overhead transmission line and transformer are developed respectively. The numerical examples are also presented.

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