发电系统中旋转备用方案的风险分析与效用决策

QI Xianjun; DING Ming

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发电系统中旋转备用方案的风险分析与效用决策

更新时间：2025-08-13

- 发电系统中旋转备用方案的风险分析与效用决策
- Automation of Electric Power Systems Vol. 32, Issue 3, Pages: 9-13(2008)
- 作者机构：
  
  合肥工业大学电气与自动化工程学院,安徽省,合肥市,230009
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
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- Published：2008
- 稿件说明：
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QI Xianjun, DING Ming. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2008, 32(3): 9-13.
DOI：

QI Xianjun, DING Ming. [J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2008, 32(3): 9-13. DOI：

摘要

电力市场环境下旋转备用的容量确定及其分配方案存在风险。为了从发电系统角度对旋转备用方案进行风险分析，定义新的随机变量———旋转备用损益，研究了旋转备用损益的概率分布，并用标准半方差量度其风险程度，利用效用函数和效用值反映不同类型（保守型、中立型和冒险型）决策者对旋转备用损益的满意程度，提出旋转备用损益的效用期望值决策模型。该模型不仅体现了旋转备用方案的客观风险，更反映了决策者对待风险的态度，因此更加符合实际。算例分析说明了该模型的有效性。

Abstract

In the electricity market environment， there exist risks in determining the spinning reserve capacity and its allocation. In order to analyze the risks of spinning reserve scheme from the prospective of power generating system， a stochastic variable called spinning reserve's gain or loss is defined. The probability distribution of spinning reserve's gain or loss is studied and the standard semi-variance is used to measure the risk of a spinning reserve scheme. The utility function and utility value are used to reflect different decision makers' satisfaction levels to the spinning reserve's gain or loss figure（conservative， risky， or neutral）. A utility expectation decision-making model is proposed. It not only reflects the objective risk of a spinning reserve scheme， but also the decision-maker's attitude to risks， which makes the model more practical. A case study shows the validity of the presented model.

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