the stochastic electricity price model originated form financial engineering theory is crucial to the pricing of the electricity derivatives
the electricity market risk management
the appraisal of asset and the investment decision under uncertainty. This paper proposes the stochastic electricity price models based on the affine jump-diffusion process with two or three jump components and a novel approximate parameter calibration method
with which the model parameters can be solved quickly using the historical electricity price data and the calculation needed will not increase with the number of the historical electricity prices. This calibration method will not cause the accumulation of computational error because it solves the model parameters directly from some numerical characteristic values of the historical electricity price. The calibration results for the Powernext
EEX and APX market using hourly spot prices are presented and Monte Carlo simulations are performed to validate the effectiveness of the model. The results illustrate that the calibrated models are capable of depicting the probability distribution of the hourly electricity price accurately and provide a useful tool for further research.
Calculation Model of Cross-zonal Medium- and Long-term Net Available Transfer Capability for Maximizing Social Welfare
Related Author
ZHANG Xian
YANG Jin
LI Geng-yin
ZHOU Ming
SHI Zhihao
YANG Zaimin
SUN Siyang
ZHENG Xiangming
Related Institution
Power Exchange Center of State Grid Corporation of China
Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control Under Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University
Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion, Ministry of Education (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)
Shanghai Non-carbon Energy Conversion and Utilization Institute
Energy Development Research Institute of China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd.