to maximize their utilities by the tradeoff of maximum profit versus minimum risk
the Generation Companies (GenCos) have to decide how to allocate their limited energy among different markets where different returns may be obtained with different degrees of risks. At present
using Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) for reference
the Expectation-Variance (E-V) model is generally adopted. However
the consistent supposition of the risk preference in the E-V model does not conform to the common decisionmaker’s psychology. So
this paper replaces the utility function with a value function to describe the changeable risk preference of the GenCos
and takes into account the influence of probability to achieve the expected profit goal
thus causes the decision result to conform to the GenCos’ psychological desire much more. Furthermore,in the process of calculating the total profit
the effect of avoiding risk by the lowest bidding in each market is considered
which makes the decision result more precise. At last
numerical results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed model.